It is ironic that Google launched TV search yesterday, because I was thinking about where search will go, and I think it will follow a similar pattern to television.
When I was growing up, we only had 2 channels until I was about 12 or 13. This was because, in my home town, we didn't have cable TV. But then, we got cable and we got 13 channels.
I was amazed. My TV universe was opened up to much more available programming, all because of a simple piece of cable.
Fast forward to the present and the advent of satellite TV where I have Direct-to-home satellite and have access to over 400 digital quality channels. Almost 25 times more channels than the 13 we had on cable, and over 150 times more than the 2 channels I grew up with.
Of course there are the 3 big networks - ABC, NBC and CBS, but I do watch a variety of other shows on networks such as Life, Discovery, MuchMusic (the Canadian equivalent of MTV in the US), Space (A science fiction based network), TechTV and more.
While the majority of my viewing is shows on one of the big three, or their subsidiaries, I do probably spend 20% of my viewing time on the "specialty" networks.
This is where my thinking started to turn towards search, and how I think search can grow beyond Yahoo! MSN and Google.
The big three search engines are much like the big three networks during the glory days of early TV - the networks were basically the only option for those wanting to watch TV. Sure, other networks came out, but not until much later. The first real big challenger to the networks was Fox, and that wasn't until the mid 80's.
So the big 3 networks dominated the airwaves for decades, much like the big 3 search engines are dominating the internet now.
So what changed on TV? Well people wanted more variety. Specialty networks started popping up. It is now cool to watch people remodel homes, overhaul vehicles, or build motorcycles on TV.
And I think this is going to be the next step with search engines. We are already starting to see "specialty" search engines setting up shop on the web. Engines like Clusty, and Feedster, and even Froogle are specialty, or vertical, search engines.
My feeling is that while Google wants to make all of the worlds information universally accessible, it is going to have a hard time doing that. Not that they won't do it, but really, when there are 5 gazillion pages in their index, and any search returns billions of results, how will people really find what they want?
Simple, they will launch a query on their favorite "specialty" engine. Looking for health information? You will go to a health themed search site. Want to know what to feed your pregnant cat? See the pet themed search engine. Want to know the circumference of Jupiter? See the science and technology search engine.
I think we will see the explosion of search happen much the way the explosion in programming choices happened. Just as virtually every niche market is covered in primetime, every search niche will also have a search results provider.
Which leads to an interesting question - how does an advertiser advertise on this ever expanding network of search?
Well, let's take a hint from TV again. Do you see auto ads on Discovery? Do you see advertisements for snack foods on ESPN? Of course. Advertisers don't stick with "the big 3" mainly because it limits their audience. They want the largest reach they can get, which means diversifying their advertising strategy to target more users on more avenues.
While you will see TV ads for the new Ford Mustang on NBC, the chances are that the ad is geared towards a broader audience. However, on Spike TV the ads are likely reworked to target the males who traditionally watch Spike. Therefore, while the NBC ad may focus on looks and comfort, the Spike TV ad focuses on engine displacement, tire size and stereo wattage.
Do you see where I'm going here? As vertical search opens up, over the next 2 to 3 years, the advertising opportunities also grow. A good marketer will be able to advertise on all the channels, while a great marketer will be able to tailor the advertising to the user of the vertical.
And I'm not just referring to paid advertising here. While the rules will more easily apply to paid ads, there is a certain amount of influence an organic search that marketers can have on influencing their rankings to target specific audiences. So, tactics will be similar to those we use now. In other words, we can use paid search to find out what text converts highest, or what on the page factors influence conversion, then modify your organic strategy to emulate the successes you've had in paid.
As you may see, paid and organic search will have to learn how to play nice together in order to get the most benefit for the advertising dollar spent. Neither discipline can operate in the vacuum that they are currently working in. The truly good search marketers know this already, and tailor campaigns to target both paid and organic search, and use what they have learned from one to help improve the results of the other. This will become increasingly apparent as vertical search becomes mainstream, and users try to find more ways to find more information.
ABC, NBC and CBS have learned how to operate in such an environment, and I think Yahoo! Google and MSN will have to learn some lessons as well.
Rob Sullivan
Production Manager
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