When it comes to search as it’s currently defined (we’ll get to that definition in a minute), Google is in a league of its own. But I think the panel agreed that it’s not so much that Google is doing exceptionally well as it is that their competition is either standing still or going backwards. Yahoo! Is struggling on many fronts and their search experience is drifting without direction (other than bolstering the sagging bottom line). And Microsoft not only isn’t in the race, they can’t seem to agree amongst themselves where the starting line is. Right now Google’s algorithm could be powered by beer, darts and a frat house and it would still outperform the competition. I’ve talked before about the Google Habit - (a term that came up again in the discussion) and right now, there’s no compelling reason to even think about breaking it.

 

 

So, if the big players aren’t threatening Google, will a start up. Several have stepped up to the challenge recently, as detailed in Aaron Goldman’s Not so Natural Born Google Killers series. But so far, it seems that they’ve all come to a gun fight armed with a jack knife. I get an invitation every week or two to look at the next “revolution in search”. As I’ve ranted about at length in the past, most of these starts ups are based on some founder’s idea of what should be revolutionary, without really considering whether it helped the user. Cuill was particularly abysmal in this regard. And, if a start up did somehow significantly up the ante for the search user, I’m guessing Google’s radar would pick it up and it would be quickly gobbled up. The three conditions that allowed Google’s emergence - a truly better algorithm, founders naïve yet capable of inventing a new kind of company and competition too stupid to realize it – are unlikely to happen again.

 

One other point on this. If innovation comes from another player, it has to benefit the user. Google has always had a clear prioritization of goals. The user always comes first, monetization after. Yahoo! And Microsoft don’t share this same philosophy, trying to juggle the goals of advertisers and users. Because of this, if something that revolutionizes search for the user comes from a start up, Google will be looking at it through the right lens and will be more likely to recognize it for what it is. It could pass right under Yahoo! And Microsoft’s nose without them realizing it.

 

Given the above, the outlook is not good for easing Google’s death grip on search.  But the fact is, we’re assuming search will remain as it is. As someone in the audience reminded us, search takes many forms in the digital world: looking for people, searching maps, scanning videos, etc. Much that is search happens outside the world we currently define as “search”. And it’s here that Google’s challenge might potentially come from.

Search Snapshot

Now to the other piece of business I wanted to clear up this week. Obviously the world of search has changed a lot in the past 12 months. Google’s increasing domination is only one aspect. The global financial meltdown has turned everything upside down. So, with all the forces at play, what is the impact on search? Well, SEMPO is currently asking you just that in their annual State of Search survey. Please take a few minutes to share the view from your particular part of the search world.


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