2004 has been quite a year. We saw the emergence of 2 major players in search debuting their own technology, while the third recently doubled the size of its search index, and filled its founder's pockets with money.
We also saw improvements in how the engines rank sites, and how often they spider and index.
In GeneralI think it's a given that desktop search will heat up. It's still a technology in its infancy, with most desktop search applications not debuting until the last half of this year. As 2005 shakes out we will probably see more people harness the power of desktop search, and probably many complaining about shortcomings. However, the engines will be quick to react to make the user experience better. Also of note here: I think Blinkx is miles ahead of the pack in terms of desktop search. The others will have to play catch up if they hope to compete with the services offered by Blinkx.
Search in general will get more competitive. We've just started seeing major advertising agencies sticking their toes into the pool and checking the temperature. I think 2005 we'll see many of the large agencies jump into search with both feet, causing tidal waves throughout the search industry. If you thought 8 billion pages indexed was something you ain't seen nothin' yet. We'll also probably see more search marketing companies being snapped up by ad agencies either through acquisitions or strategic partnerships.
Local search will continue to grow as the major search engines figure out how to make it work better. Microsoft is perfecting Geo-targeting and has the ability to serve local results based on where you are as a searcher with no input from you (based on your IP address). Of course there will be some bugs in the system, but they will be worked out over the year.
In addition, vertical search will grow. Although I don't necessarily see vertical as THE hot search of 2005, it will gain a respectable audience and prove to online marketers that there is more to online marketing than Google, Yahoo! and MSN.
We will begin to see more people using their wireless devices to access the web. This year (2004) we are seeing more wireless phone manufacturers, for example, improving the wireless web features built into their phones. No longer do you have to shell out a few hundred bucks to get a web enabled phone. Now they are practically giving them away.
Of the three major engines, here's what I see:
Google:Early in the year,first quarter for sure, we will see at least one and probably two new search products come out of the labs. One I think will really shake things up as it will take direct aim at a major Microsoft product: The desktop. However, I don't see it as a replacement for the desktop, but a way to move more things from your local computer to a virtual computer hosted, of course, by Google.
They will also continue to develop the breadth of indexing capabilities. We've already seen Yahoo! jump into video search and I don't think Google is too far behind. I think by the end of the year Google will be a lot closer to being able to index ALL online media, not just web pages.
Yahoo!Yahoo! will continue to be the "all things to all people" entertainment portal which they have been developing. While search won't necessarily take a back seat, it won't be their focus in 2005. We will continue to see improvements, but they will be minor in comparison to the cool new stuff coming out of the Yahoo! labs.
They could emerge as the dark horse: premiering new technology before MSN or Google, but I think it will be entertainment based, or have an entertainment focus. I could see them partnering with a major games manufacturer, like EA games, to produce the first totally online gaming experience. One where you don't need a local copy of the game running on your PC or gaming console. They would monetize this by selling advertising with the game itself. Or at the very least, it will be a subscription based game.
MSNMSN will continue to chase Yahoo! and Google in search. While I am impressed with their beta search I do see that much improvement will be needed. However, in a rush to get it out to the general public, they will push it out of beta too soon and with too many holes. I see soon that after the beta search becomes mainstream it will be hacked and taken over. It will likely come out of beta in the first half of 2005.
MSN will also try to integrate search into more of their desktop products. Desktop search already does search emails and documents, but you have to launch the search from the desktop application. I can see future updates to most of the office line of products to allow you to tap into the desktop search from Word, Excel and Outlook, just to name a few.
Further to this, I see that MSN will probably replace the search built into Windows with the desktop search. Or at least use the technology behind the desktop search to power the local search. With the recent announcement that WinFS is not due to be released for many more years, it only makes sense that something will have to supplement the gap created by a poor local indexing capability.
While MSN won't go the paid inclusion path, I expect to see them to begin to develop their own PPC model by the end of 2005. It will likely be a unique model which no one else is doing (like pay per conversion, rather than pay per click). All you will have to do is install the MSN PPC tracking code on your site, and use their management console to track your campaign. This will be an excellent research tool for Microsoft, and they will be able to learn how people use their search engine, so they can better refine their results.
The othersAs much as it pains me to lump Ask Jeeves in with "the others" I feel I must. I do see them coming out of "the others" group in 2005 to establish their own dominant and growing web presence. I think of all the engines, Ask Jeeves will be the one to watch in 2005.
I think we'll see changes in how they display their results. We will see paid ads taking less of the search marketing space on their SERP's with a focus on more organic listings. This will force web marketers to sit up and take notice.
I also see them developing more technology, as they continue to gain momentum from users switching from the big 3 to an alternative.
Essentially, the rest are just that "the others" - and they will make small inroads, but overall the market will still be dominated by Google, Yahoo and MSN, but their dominance of the market, that is the 90+ percent share of the market, will begin to shrink.
What I'd like to seeWhile all this new search technology is great, I'd like to see more integration of the different features into one.
For example, I'd like to see the local search paired with the real time traffic updates which Yahoo! has. So that if you perform a search for "pizza" not only will you find pizza places in your area, but you will also be able to see what may be the quickest route to take to pick up your pizza.
It would be ideal if this real time data could be coupled with something like Google's Keyhole to show not only real time data, but have that data superimposed over the cool satellite images Keyhole has.
I'd like to see better media indexing. While Yahoo! is way ahead of everyone in terms of indexing multimedia, I'd like to see it improved (already). For example, with the recent tsunami tragedy I would have liked to be able to find the video that was captured within hours of the event (and it being posted) not days or even weeks. I'm the type that needs instant information while the multitudes of news services are great at providing me up to date print news, I'd like to have the option to see the news video as well.
I'd like to see more free online services. While Yahoo! is getting better at providing more services online, much of their good online content is subscription only. In order to truly win me over, I need more free stuff!
Also, since I am Canada, I'd like to see more of the services offered to Americans available to Canadians.
I'd also like more control over my home page. Not that I'm picking on Yahoo! but with Yahoo! I have less control on where I can display content on My Yahoo! than I do on My MSN. With My MSN I can move content more easily from column to column, but the amount of content I can display is limited. So I like the sources that Yahoo! has, but I prefer the customization of MSN.
Speaking of My MSN, I'd like Microsoft to make more of its web based properties to support Firefox. I use Firefox a lot both at work and at home, and the Microsoft web properties just aren't as easy to use with Firefox as they are with IE. Considering that IE is losing share at a phenomenal rate, I would hope that Microsoft is considering adding support for other browsers to its websites.
I'd like to see more services like Feedster (on which you can search for the latest blog posts and other syndicated content on the web). Or at least I'd like to see Feedster easier to use, and a little quicker in returning results. While it's great that they can index every feed every night, and even include new feeds within a few hours of their submission, I'd like to see a more intuitive user process in place.
SummaryOverall I think 2005 will be another stellar year for search. We will see more avenues open up to those online, not only providing new sources of information, but also new revenue streams. As the world becomes more wired (and wireless) search will continue to play an increasingly important part.
Rob Sullivan
Production Manager
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